Welcome to MetalWings!

I'm slowly working on this website as time permits. However, to pass the time until the release, here are some random predictions done without any special insight or connections. Probably most of them will be wrong. Some "predictions" are pretty safe, others a bit more aggressive.

• The first hobbymaster F-106 will model the 5th FIS. Alternately, 27th FIS. The first ANG F-106 will be Montana or New Jersey (or, in an outside chance, Florida). I'm not even going to venture a guess as to whether there will be a NASA ones, as NASA aircraft in general seem to have done badly. One of the more colorful F-106 liveries, the 49th FIS bicentennial, will not be done. Hopefully also the horrible 419th FIS livery will not be done, though it might be.
• There will be a Hobbymaster camo F-102. No great prediction here. My money is on a Vietnam-war one early on and then later, a NY ANG bird.
• Future HM F-102s will be Hawaii ANG and possibly Pennsylvania ANG. At this point, I break every pledge that I've made to get just one and find myself with four or five.
• HM will release a Voodoo in 2011 (duh). The first release will be a generic US one and the second will be a CF-101. The Voodoo suffers from boring US liveries.
• HM won't bother with a Greek or Turkish F-102 for a while if at all.
• HM will make a George W Bush F-102.
• HM will announce a Mirage III as its next non-US jet.
• A Fairey Firefly will be released by Witty or Skymax.
• IL-2 (and variants) will be released under the SkyMax brand or not released at all.
• Corgi TSR.2s sell for under GBP 40 on ebay by the end of the year.
• HM holds off on making any navalzed versions of its 1/48 early Spitfire mould for quite a while, even though it will be quite popular.
• The F4B will be a beautiful model. It will be a consistent, though not specatcular seller along the lines of the P26.
• The F9F 1/48 Panther line has ended with the Brubacker release.
• HM will release a Sundowners F4 Phantom in late 2011 but without all the tooling changes required for the "B." There will be griping, but it will sell like mad.
• HM will get significantly more creative with its FW190 liveries, perhaps even before Xmas.
• HM's next WW2 era 1/48 aircraft will be a razorback P-47. Alternate: Corsair. Pity, since the FM F4Us were actually quite good despite taking a lot of flak.
• Nobody releases a 1/72 B-29. Corgi instead works on an eventually overpriced Short Stirling.
• Dragon's 1/144 line reboot will be forgotten. Aircraft like the X-15 smaller than 1/72 are a joke.
• Nobody will make a 1/72 F-35, U-2, or F-117 in 2010-2011. If I am wrong on the F-117 and it is released, it will sell well.
• In perhaps the most obvious prediction ever, HM will release some 357th P-51Ds. More speculatively, the first of these will be OD P-51D "Frenesi." It will be exceptionally popular.
• HM will show some fortitude and release a Korean War F-51 in 2011. While it will not be a huge seller, it will earn them more respect from people like me. That is, if it has US markings. They might opt to go for one with Korean markings, which is also fine, I guess.
• HM will also release a "Bluenoser" P-51D, of course. Petie III is my guess.
• HM will release a USN blue scheme aggressors A4.
• CW will release two out of the three of the following in 2011: Pukin Dogs F-14, Low-vis Sundowners F-14, or NSAWC fallon.
• CW releases a VF-31 F-14 in 2011 (black tail version). A Japanese market exclusive red-tailed version proves extremely popular in the USA. A Santa-Claus liveried one doesn't.'
• The Canadian Warplane Heritage Museum will release no diecast in 2010/2011 other than Avro Arrow 201.
• Witty will release a Gannett in mid 2011 similar to the one in Duxford.

My recent predictions that came true:

• Witty's Javelin and/or Sea Vixen will be delayed by at least a month this moved to 'true' predictions today!
• Corgi's Fokker DVII will sell poorly.
• HM's new 1/32 SBD has Coral Sea livery
• HM has announced a VX-4 Phantom. I don't think I'm the only one who suspected this, as I bought my corgi less than a year ago for 10.
• Red Falcon wouldn't be able to deliver a product.
• Corgi's "Hell's Angels" B-17 is a bust, or, at least, does not live up to the expectations of significant retooling.

Company Trends:

• Franklin Mint / Armour prices continue to climb, generally, though with a few exceptions.
  
  • The He-111 will very very slowly but surely be recognized as possibly the greatest large 1/48 diecast aircraft ever made. Certainly better as a mould than any of FM's other larger aircraft.
  • The much-maligned Me-109 will rise in value unless HM does a later-ME109 mould, which is unlikely. HM's painting techniques are not well suited for late-war Me109s.
  • Good but not great moulds such as the SBD, Me262, P47 Bubbletop, Hurricane and F4U continue to block entrants (err, HM) in that area, but over time all but the SBD will be replaced. It stands to note that for all of these aircraft, FM actually has a very respectable livery line-up.
  • FW-190 and F-13 will continue to fall in value.
• Hobbymaster's price rises, which are outpacing inflation by ridiculous amounts, will increasingly be a sore spot with collectors.
• Few collectors buy more than one of any SkyMax release.
• Carousel1 prices stabilize at around 40 per aircraft and don't climb substantially higher for all but a few rare ones, such as the triplane and Baraca Nieuport.
• There is still a suspiciously large stock of Eagles Internationals P-51s and T6s/SNJs looming.
• Century Wings is dying. An F-117 might help, as would a few more A6s, but beyond that, it's difficult to see what they can do. They might do an F-18 though, which would be nice and instantly obsolete the less than ideal Dragon and Witty versions.
• FOV might release a 1/72 C-47, but will make fewer aircraft overall
• GainCorp is dead

Hobby Trends:

• 1/48 for WW2/Korea and earlier is on the ascendancy, as it provides far more value to the collector than 1/72 for WW2 single-engine types.
• On the other hand, 1/48 and larger for modern jets is dead.
• 1/32 largely dead, even though some of us would kill for a 1/32 Corsair, Hellcat, or Zero and there's a sneaking suspicion that a 1/32 zero would sell like crazy.

Wish List:
A lot of my personal wish-list is semi-subconsciously embedded in my predictions above. The following extends on this and tries to stay in the realm of the commercially possible, rather than the overly unlikely (1/48 XP-55!).

• 1/72 B-29. When all else is said and done, there's nothing that would benefit my collection as much as this. Virtually no limit on interesting liveries, even if B-50 version is not done. Even a Corgi version would be great, if they promise not to do the nose art with their 'glossy sticker' process that has ruined many an otherwise decent model.
• The upcoming F4B is sure to be a hit. There's a great version with a LARGE "Felix the Cat" roundel on it. Yes please.
• That FOV continue to make diecast WW2 aircraft, despite being largely ignored by 'community.' Their models, while not perfect, deserve far more respect than they get.